Rispetto a una guerra mondiale, l’epidemia di COVID-19 è un problema gestibile, a condizione che il governo americano sia all’altezza della sfida. Ma senza una mobilitazione di massa la crisi potrebbe facilmente dilagare. Da “Project Syndicate”.
When the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, the United States was surprised and unprepared, but it was quickly freed of its illusions. The same does not hold true for the COVID-19 epidemic. The attack is underway and our defenses are down – but so far our illusions remain intact.
That will soon change as the infection rate and death toll rise, while the stock market sinks. Global supply chains have been disrupted by events in China, and India has just banned the export of certain generic drugs. Medical masks are already in short supply, and everyday items such as hand sanitizer have become difficult to find. The heavily globalized, consumer- and finance-driven US economy was not designed for a pandemic. The country’s medical system has it even worse. America has vast health-care capacity, but millions of people are uninsured, underinsured, undocumented, or simply reluctant to go to the doctor or emergency room, owing to the cost of co-payments, deductibles, and uncovered fees.
In a pandemic – where every infected person is a threat to the entire population – this is a formula for disaster. Everyone must be able to come forward, get tested, and receive free treatment without fear of consequences – including the very poor, the homeless, and the undocumented.US medical personnel are not equipped, and facilities are not designed to manage a potential explosion of people needing isolation and specialized care. Hospital beds and quarantine units may be required where outbreaks overwhelm local capacity, and moving sick, infectious people over distances to available open beds is a risky policy. Effective training for those caring for the quarantined is critical; otherwise, the virus will spread among support staff.
Medical supplies such as test kits and hazard suits must also be delivered where and when they are needed. The flow of ordinary civilian supplies also presents a risk. The reserve purchasing power of US households is vast; if they decide suddenly to stockpile dried and canned foods, paper towels, batteries, aspirin, and other basics, these mundane items could run short. And if factories and distribution chains are closed down, the problem can cascade as each shortage spurs a new wave of panic. At the very least, prices will rise and low-income households might be shut out.All these problems are aggravated by widespread lack of trust in the US authorities and in the commercial media.
To solve this, the government must empower the Centers for Disease Control and the Federal Emergency Management Agency to tell Americans precisely what is happening and to give clear, credible instructions. Direct, regular mass communication from competent scientific professionals, rather than from politicians and the media, can help to maintain calm, promote low-risk behavior, and avoid panics.