Three years on, the war in Ukraine has reshaped economies, lives, and global politics. Can Europe afford the price? Da Social Europe
Three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, what has been the cost of war? What have been its consequences?
Starting with the economic dimensions, Russia today has a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimated at just over $2 trillion, while Italy’s stands at $2.2 trillion. Ukraine’s GDP is one-tenth the size of Russia’s, at approximately $200 billion. The war has reduced Ukraine’s GDP by about 20 percent—far more than Russia’s—exacerbating a long-standing disparity. Russian per capita income is now twice that of Ukraine. In real terms, Ukraine’s per capita income halved with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, later recovering but remaining stuck at three-quarters of Soviet-era levels. Russia experienced the same initial decline after 1991 but has since seen its per capita income double in real terms since 2000.
The human cost of the war is the most tragic. In February 2024, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that 31,000 Ukrainian military personnel had been killed. As of 31 August 2024, the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission had documented at least 11,743 civilian deaths and 24,614 injuries in Ukraine since the invasion began. Six million Ukrainians have fled to escape war and military conscription, while an estimated four million are internally displaced. According to the United Nations, Ukraine’s population has declined by one-quarter since the invasion began.
